This month, Professor Sajid Mehmood Shahzad, retired naval officer and Vice Chancellor of Minhaj University Lahore, wrote in our newspaper about the QUAD program, also known as “Asian NATO”, and its implications for Pakistan’s maritime security
Quad (not QUAD) or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is an informal grouping of four countries, the United States, Japan, India and Australia. It is an extension of the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). The Indo-Pacific construct is a maritime expanse recognized by the United States and its allies, but opposed by Beijing. China claims the Indo-Pacific as an attempt to contain its rise. The Indo-Pacific stretches from Africa to the west coast of the United States.
The tectonic shift of the economic center of gravity from the Atlantic to the Asia-Pacific has increased the geopolitical and strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific. China is an unstoppable rising power. It is now challenging the U.S.-led world order and the Bretton Woods system in place since the end of World War II. In an increasingly multipolar world, the US has seen the limits of its power as exercised during the Cold War era. It is an entirely new world today with so many players and non-state actors threatening stability and order.
At the heart of the Quad is the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) under what is called the “rules-based order – a system in which members share a “sense of common interest”, rules and institutions, and seek to promote these rules effectively in the form of international organizations, treaties, and law”. China perceives this order as a Western system led by the United States, which sets the rules. No wonder the Quad is increasingly referred to as the “Asian NATO.
The role of the navies of these four countries is also fundamental to Quad. The joint exercises and naval maneuvers are aimed at ensuring the implementation of the FOIP. Although Quad’s focus is on the Pacific, it has recently conducted large-scale exercises in the Indian Ocean region. Some American scholars have referred to the grouping as the Quad of four maritime democracies. Quad reflects the member states’ aspirations and will to influence the order in the Indo-Pacific region. In other words, Quad challenges China’s claims over the South China Sea and aims to checkmate its encroachment into the Indian Ocean region. Simply put, it is an effort and a counter-effort to assert and exercise control over the sea lanes to and from the Indian Ocean. Needless to say, China is overwhelmingly dependent on the Gulf region for its energy needs, which are transported through the Indian Ocean sea lanes.
If the purpose of its presence in the Indian Ocean is to counter non-traditional threats, Quad raises questions. The fact that many of these threats, including piracy, drug and human trafficking, maritime terrorism, etc., have been under the radar of various multinational coalitions for the past decade or more makes this argument self-defeating. These coalitions were formed specifically to combat the threat of these crimes in the Indian Ocean following the events of September 2001 and later with the rise of Somali piracy.
Another focus of the Indian Ocean Quad is the commitment of member states to enhance information sharing and maritime domain awareness in the region. This includes close monitoring and management of activities that appear to be illicit in the area. But a possible covert agenda could be to monitor Chinese activities in the region, both military and commercial.
Another obvious and emerging focus of the Quad is cooperation on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). Natural disasters and the effects of climate change are a major concern in the Indian Ocean region, which is highly vulnerable to such calamities. However, the Pacific region is not exempt from natural disasters. Quad is considering operationalizing and advancing coordination in this area as well. Nevertheless, Quad’s presence in the Indian Ocean region raises several questions. It certainly does not have the benevolent intentions it professes on the surface. It certainly has a hidden agenda that goes beyond FOIP.
As Pakistan strives to strike a balance in its relations with the US and China, Quad activities affect its strategic calculus. The emergence of the Quad fundamentally affects Pakistan’s strategic architecture, especially with India as a member. Pakistan remains wary of the Quad for two main reasons. The first is the significant impact it could have on the sea lines of communication that underpin the country’s economy and transport strategic goods like energy products etc. It is feared that Quad could jeopardize these sea lines in times of crisis, especially with India as a member. The other worrying aspect of Quad’s presence is its likely impact on CPEC-related activities at and from Gwadar on the Makran coast. Major international sea lines of communication cross the western Indian Ocean. The North Arabian Sea is also an important operational area for Pakistan. The presence of the Quad could lead Pakistan to embrace China more firmly than ever. It could also make Moscow more assertive in the region. It would be in the larger interest of regional stability and maritime security if Quad were made more inclusive by including other member states and stakeholders in the group.
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